نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان. دانشکده تولید گیاهی. گروه زراعت
2 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
3 گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
4 گروه زراعت، دانشکدهتولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Abstract
Background and Objectives:
canola (Brassica napus L.) is considered one of the most important oilseeds in the world due to its high oil content. Regarding the world population rapidly increasing, global food demand is projected to rise by 60% by 2050, presenting substantial challenges, particularly in climate change. The most critical aspects of global climate change include significant temperature increases and uneven precipitation distribution, which pose limitations to sustainable development. Climate change risk assessment aims to identify adaptation strategies that promote sustainable development in specific regions. These strategies vary based on agricultural systems, regional characteristics, and climate change scenarios. This study explores adaptation strategies for rainfed canola cultivation in response to climate change in the country.
Materials and methods: This study was conducted to predict the effects of climate change on the growth and development of rainfed canola in differnt climatic regions of Iran.
We used two general circulation models, HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-MR, from the CMIP5 project under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the fifth IPCC assessment, for the period from 2040 to 2069. The AgMIP approach was employed to downscale climatic parameters for future projections. Following the simulation of future climatic data and the generation of necessary parameters, the growth and development of rain-fed canola were modeled using the SSM-iCrop2 model. Additionally, two adaptation strategies were evaluated: early planting (10%, 20%, and 30% earlier) and late planting (10%, 20%, and 30% later).
Results: The model output indicated that the mean temperature during the canola growing season will increase by approximately 2.3°C in the RCP4.5 scenario and around 3.1°C in the RCP8.5 scenario compared to the baseline period. The results also revealed that there are the two models' precipitation distribution between growing seasons. Under climate change conditions in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, it was observed that the growing season would decrease in both models despite rising average temperatures. However, water use efficiency is expected to improve in both scenarios. Predictions for average canola yield in the main cultivation regions approved an increase of 10% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 13% in the RCP8.5 scenario compared to baseline conditions. Conversely, implementing early planting strategies will decrease yield ranging from 11% to 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario and from 13% to 43% in the RCP8.5 scenario, compared to future conditions without adaptation strategies. Moreover, adopting late planting strategies is anticipated to enhance yields by 7% to 12% in the RCP4.5 scenario and by 10% to 17% in the RCP8.5 scenario compared to future conditions without adaptation strategies.
Conclusion: The results showed that, yields in most major canola cultivation areas are expected to increase under both emissions scenarios. However, implementing early planting strategies in both scenarios is projected to lead to a decrease in yields compared to future conditions without adaptation. Conversely, by delaying planting, yields are anticipated to improve on average in both scenarios compared to future conditions without an adaptation strategy.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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